Stochastic fractured rock facies for groundwater flow modeling

This paper presents simulation results of groundwater flow in fractured rocks. A stochastic approach is employed to build the conceptual model, a stochastic Equivalent Porous Medium fractured rock facies model, for the low-permeability bedrock found at Olkiluoto (Finland), which is the site chosen for the case-study. The volume of rock investigated is located around a cluster of boreholes and it covers an area of 160000 square meters. Field measurements during hydraulic interference tests are used to calibrate the groundwater flow model. Multiple stochastic facies realizations are considered to evaluate the impact of distribution and number of facies on simulated hydraulic heads and flow rates. This study quantifies the variability of numerical results, which is important for uncertainty analysis of hydrogeologic systems. Moreover, it shows that the stochastic facies conceptual model is a suitable alternative to discrete fracture network conceptual models.