TY - JOUR
T1 - Probabilistic Analysis of the Obstruction of Water Sources Due to the Occurrence of Rainfall-Triggered Mass Movements
AU - Giraldo, Laura Ortiz
AU - Hernández, Blanca Adriana Botero
AU - Gutiérrez, Johnny Alexander Vega
N1 - Funding Information:
This study is framed within the guidelines and products of the research program “Vulnerability, resilience and risk of communities and supplying basins affected by landslides and avalanches”, code 1118-852-71251, project “Functions for vulnerability assessment due to water shortages by landslides and avalanches: micro-basins of southwest Antioquia”, contract 80740-492-2020 held between Fiduprevisora and the Universidad de Medellín, with resources from the National Financing Fund for science, technology and innovation, “Francisco José de Caldas”.
Publisher Copyright:
© Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd.
PY - 2021/12/6
Y1 - 2021/12/6
N2 - This paper presents a methodology for the probabilistic estimation of the obstruction of water streams generated by shallow mass movements triggered by rainfall. The study focuses on the Ovejas River, a tributary stream of the Medellín River, in the jurisdiction of the municipality of San Vicente in the department of Antioquia (Colombia). The occurrence of a mass movements was evaluated by deterministic and probabilistic methods based on the automation of processes of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and spatial modeling. The spatial distribution of the mass movement hazard was estimated in terms of Factor of Safety (FoS) values by the deterministic method with physical basis SLIDE (Slope - Infiltration - Distributed Equilibrium), which allows the hazard zonation by calculating a FoS for rainfall-induced mass movements with different return periods. The rainfall regimes of the study area are estimated by means of a simple scaling Log Normal Model. On the other hand, the Probability of Failure (PF) analysis was performed under Rosenblueth's punctual estimates method (PEM), which allows incorporating the uncertainty of the soil parameters. Subsequently, the resulting zones with high hazard that could detach and reach the Ovejas River channel are identified as sources for runout modeling by means of the Flow R model, thus estimating the extent of mass movement in probabilistic terms. In all the analyzed scenarios, the sliding material from the critical stability zones has a high probability of spreading to the riverbed of the main river. This analysis makes possible to identify those areas of the riverbed that should be analyzed with more detail and require possible intervention for the protection of the riverbed.
AB - This paper presents a methodology for the probabilistic estimation of the obstruction of water streams generated by shallow mass movements triggered by rainfall. The study focuses on the Ovejas River, a tributary stream of the Medellín River, in the jurisdiction of the municipality of San Vicente in the department of Antioquia (Colombia). The occurrence of a mass movements was evaluated by deterministic and probabilistic methods based on the automation of processes of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and spatial modeling. The spatial distribution of the mass movement hazard was estimated in terms of Factor of Safety (FoS) values by the deterministic method with physical basis SLIDE (Slope - Infiltration - Distributed Equilibrium), which allows the hazard zonation by calculating a FoS for rainfall-induced mass movements with different return periods. The rainfall regimes of the study area are estimated by means of a simple scaling Log Normal Model. On the other hand, the Probability of Failure (PF) analysis was performed under Rosenblueth's punctual estimates method (PEM), which allows incorporating the uncertainty of the soil parameters. Subsequently, the resulting zones with high hazard that could detach and reach the Ovejas River channel are identified as sources for runout modeling by means of the Flow R model, thus estimating the extent of mass movement in probabilistic terms. In all the analyzed scenarios, the sliding material from the critical stability zones has a high probability of spreading to the riverbed of the main river. This analysis makes possible to identify those areas of the riverbed that should be analyzed with more detail and require possible intervention for the protection of the riverbed.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85121426927&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1088/1755-1315/906/1/012040
DO - 10.1088/1755-1315/906/1/012040
M3 - Artículo de la conferencia
AN - SCOPUS:85121426927
SN - 1755-1307
VL - 906
JO - IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science
JF - IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science
IS - 1
M1 - 012040
T2 - 7th World Multidisciplinary Earth Sciences Symposium, WMESS 2021
Y2 - 6 September 2021 through 10 September 2021
ER -