TY - JOUR
T1 - Implicaciones metodológicas e inconsistencias de la Tercera Comunicación Nacional sobre Cambio Climático de Colombia
AU - Arias, Paola A.
AU - Villegas, Laura D.
AU - Mesa, Oscar J.
AU - Pabón, José D.
AU - Arango, Jacobo
AU - Arango-Aramburo, Santiago
AU - Armenteras, Dolors
AU - Berrouet, Lina
AU - Barahona, Rolando
AU - Barco, Janet
AU - Cardona, Yuley
AU - Carvajal-Escobar, Yesid
AU - Ceballos-Bonilla, Lina I.
AU - Cerón, Wilmar L.
AU - Escobar, Jaime H.
AU - González, Catalina
AU - Hoyos, Isabel C.
AU - Hoyos, Natalia
AU - Jaramillo, Carlos
AU - Jiménez-Sánchez, Giovanni
AU - Martínez, J. Alejandro
AU - Poveda, Germán
AU - Quesada, Benjamín
AU - Quintero-Vallejo, Estela
AU - Rendón, Ángela M.
AU - Ruiz-Carrascal, Daniel
AU - Salazar, Alejandro
AU - Salazar, Juan F.
AU - Sánchez, Adriana
AU - Vieira, Sara C.
AU - Villegas, Juan Camilo
AU - Villegas-Palacio, Clara
AU - Zuluaga, Manuel D.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 Colombian Academy of Exact, Physical and Natural Sciences. All rights reserved.
PY - 2022/7/1
Y1 - 2022/7/1
N2 - The National Communications on Climate Change (NCCC) are a mechanism for countries to report on their progress in mitigation and adaptation, and are a basis for climate change policy at the national level. Colombia has issued three NCCCs. The third CNCC presents a scenario that considers projections from various models included in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Comparison Project (CMIP). This scenario is estimated as the average of the projections corresponding to the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) presented in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Each of these RCPs represents a greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration trajectory for a particular scenario of population, economic and technological growth, leading to a possible trajectory of climate system evolution. Our article compares the projections presented in the Third CNCC with those obtained directly from the models used. Our results show that by using an average CPR, alternative scenarios that could be important in considering different possible futures are lost, negating the usefulness of proposing different GHG emission trajectories. Moreover, a comparison between the Second and Third CNCC shows opposite precipitation projections for different regions of the country. This is particularly important because the climate change scenario proposed in the Third CNCC is a reference scenario for climate change decision-making at the national level.
AB - The National Communications on Climate Change (NCCC) are a mechanism for countries to report on their progress in mitigation and adaptation, and are a basis for climate change policy at the national level. Colombia has issued three NCCCs. The third CNCC presents a scenario that considers projections from various models included in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Comparison Project (CMIP). This scenario is estimated as the average of the projections corresponding to the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) presented in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Each of these RCPs represents a greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration trajectory for a particular scenario of population, economic and technological growth, leading to a possible trajectory of climate system evolution. Our article compares the projections presented in the Third CNCC with those obtained directly from the models used. Our results show that by using an average CPR, alternative scenarios that could be important in considering different possible futures are lost, negating the usefulness of proposing different GHG emission trajectories. Moreover, a comparison between the Second and Third CNCC shows opposite precipitation projections for different regions of the country. This is particularly important because the climate change scenario proposed in the Third CNCC is a reference scenario for climate change decision-making at the national level.
KW - Climate change
KW - Climate change scenario for Colombia
KW - Climate projections
KW - CMIP5
KW - National Communications on Climate Change
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85140882758&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.18257/raccefyn.1705
DO - 10.18257/raccefyn.1705
M3 - Artículo
AN - SCOPUS:85140882758
SN - 0370-3908
VL - 46
SP - 769
EP - 794
JO - Revista de la Academia Colombiana de Ciencias Exactas, Fisicas y Naturales
JF - Revista de la Academia Colombiana de Ciencias Exactas, Fisicas y Naturales
IS - 180
ER -